02The decision rule
Which one first is decided by your category, not your preference
Here is the rule we use on audit calls, and it fits on one line. If people are already searching for the category you sell into, demand exists and your job is to capture it. If nobody is searching, there is nothing to capture and outbound is the only way to start a conversation. Category awareness, not company size or budget, is the variable that decides the order. Three states cover almost every B2B company we speak to, and each one gets a three-way split of the first two quarters of effort and budget. Three words, one meaning each, used the same way here and again in section 03. Capture is demand that already exists and you are collecting it. Outbound is you starting the conversation against a list you can name, which works whether or not anyone is searching. Create is building the demand that is not there yet.
50% capture / 30% outbound / 20% create
A. Established category
Signal: Your category term has meaningful monthly search volume, competitors bid on it, and buyers arrive already comparing named vendors.
Do this: Demand exists. Collect it before you spend a year creating more. Paid search and category pages carry the largest share, outbound works the accounts who have not started searching yet, and creation can wait.
25% capture / 40% outbound / 35% create
B. Emerging category
Signal: Thin volume on the category term, but real volume on the workaround: the spreadsheet template, the manual process, the incumbent tool people are unhappy with.
Do this: Split it. Capture the smaller group already searching for the workaround, start conversations by outbound with everyone else, and publish a point of view, which starts paying inside the same period because the searches are already forming.
0% capture / 60% outbound / 40% create
C. New category
Signal: Nobody searches for what you sell, because there is no word for it yet. Your closed deals all came from a conversation somebody started, never from an inbound enquiry.
Do this: There is nothing to capture, so the capture column is zero and inbound cannot be the plan. Outbound is the only way to start a conversation at all. Creation takes the rest, because it is what makes year two cheaper than year one, not what gets you to first revenue.
The percentages are a starting split, not a law, and each row adds to 100. What matters is the direction of travel across the three cards. Capture falls from 50% to 25% to nothing as the category gets newer, because there is progressively less existing demand to collect, and in a new category every dollar spent on capture tactics hits a market that has not yet formed the question your product answers. Outbound rises from 30% to 60% over the same three states, because it is the one activity that works from a standing start. Creation rises from 20% to 40%, because the newer the category, the more of year two depends on somebody having explained it in year one.
Read the first two columns together if you want one number for cash planning. Capture plus outbound is the share of the budget expected to produce conversations inside the first two quarters: 80% in an established category, 65% in an emerging one, 60% in a new one. It falls in that order because the cheapest conversations are the ones somebody else already asked for.
Those first two columns together are lead generation, and the third is demand generation. That is the whole mapping, and section 03 applies it activity by activity. So the split is not a third variable sitting beside the two words in the title, it is those two words with the lead generation half opened up, because collecting demand that exists and starting a conversation where none does are the same discipline done under opposite market conditions.
State B is where most teams get it wrong, because the workaround searches are invisible if you only look up your own category term. Companies replacing a spreadsheet, a manual process or an unloved incumbent almost always have real volume sitting on those problem queries while their category term shows nearly nothing. Capture that traffic, and run outbound at the accounts who have not started searching yet.